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Heh. It’s All in Your Perception
Anita Campbell of Small Business Trends | November 11th, 2008 - 11:25 AM
(13) found this useful. Do you? 
You know what they say about seeing things from a glass half full versus a glass half empty perspective.
Words and numbers are funny things. You can take the same numbers and combine them with certain words and it will make them sound like the end of the world is nigh. Or you can make those same numbers sound like good news.
Take for instance, this quote from MediaPost that I read this week:
“The growth in online shopping hasn’t just slowed, ‘it’s fallen off a cliff,’ says Gian Fulgoni, chairman of comScore ….”
Whaaaat!!!
When I first read that I was seriously alarmed. It sounded like online sales were declining year over year. Like, I’d better head over to the bread line. Like, right now.
‘How could that be?’ I wondered, when everyone else is predicting small to moderate growth in online sales for 2008? For instance, Dawn Rivers Baker wrote here not long ago that the forecast for 2008 holiday sales is 2.2% growth by the National Retail Federation. And the NRF growth forecast is only two tenths of a percent off last year’s holiday sales growth of 2.4%. And she didn’t make it sound like the sky was falling.
Well, it turns out that the Comscore exec’s definition of “falling off a cliff” is different from mine. Read on in the same article and you see that falling off a cliff means that online sales in the first 3 quarters grew 10%:
“Year-to-date, comScore says, online sales have grown 10% to $158 billion–compared to 17% last year, 20% in 2006, and 22% in 2005. Just this year, it has plunged from 19% in the first quarter, 13% in the second, and 9% in the third. Excluding travel, the drop is even steeper, falling to just 5% in September.”
I don’t know about you, but I know businesses that would be thrilled with 10% growth year over year. I know employees who would be ecstatic with a 10% pay increase each year.
But if you simply read that quote and nothing more, you would have jumped to a very different conclusion.
Lest you think I’m dense, I definitely get the point about the rapid slowing of growth. And I think the article itself was very good and quite valuable in breaking down the numbers and including other sources forecasting year-over-year sales growth. I am merely remarking on what the quoted industry source said.
My point is this: keep using phrases like “falling off a cliff” to describe 10% sales growth, and negative sales growth will become a self-fulfilling prophecy. We’ll convince consumers and small businesses and corporations that things are so bad, they should just stop spending altogether.
Why? Because everyone else has stopped spending! (”Haven’t you heard?”)
If we want sales to bounce back, we’ve got to start talking about the economy a little more from the glass half full perspective. Not that anyone should ignore reality. But let’s not shade reality to such a negative extent that we become a nation of losers — talking ourselves into low sales because of all the bad news we’re constantly bombarded with provokes us to hide our money under the mattress, instead of living our lives and running our businesses.
That’s this business owner’s perception.
Martin Lindeskog | November 11th, 2008 at 11:40 am
Have you heard the story of the hot dog stand owner and his educated son? The son had learned in school that they were in a recession and told his father. The father stopped shouting: “come and buy a hot dog!” and made a smaller sign. What happened? He sold less hot dogs and went back to his son and said: “You are right. The economy is bad and my business is not as good as before. Thanks for the advice.”
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Chris | November 11th, 2008 at 11:53 am
This is so true - it turns into “spin.”
I was shopping this weekend and pretty much expected to see less shoppers and slightly emptier stores for the upcoming Holiday season. Most of all, I expected to see less consumers shopping for larger ticket items. NOT TRUE.
I happened to be browsing the new television and electronics section at a popular chain and oddly enough . . . there were a LOT of people shopping - and more importantly - actuallly purchasing large ticket items.
Things that make you go, “Hmmmm. . .”
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Arthur Bland | November 11th, 2008 at 11:51 pm
Well, even in fastfood chains here, there are a lot eating and having plenty of orders… Make me think too… Why don’t we try to look things on a positive perspective…
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Amanda | November 12th, 2008 at 9:12 am
I agree with Chris. I have seen large numbers of shoppers still purchasing home improvement materials at the big chain DIY stores. It surprises me that if things were as bad as they report, people would not be remodeling their homes.
I think any kind of business growth is something to be encouraged by.
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Arthur Bland | November 12th, 2008 at 10:00 pm
I agree Amanda… Things are not really that bad as what it is reported everyday.
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Anita Campbell of Small Business Trends | November 12th, 2008 at 11:32 pm
It’s all in your perception …. Do you see the glass half full? If you do, it colors the way you look at everything.
Of course, I’m an inveterate optimist. I admit it.
– Anita
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GrantMarquit | November 14th, 2008 at 1:42 pm
Half-empty, for the sake of argument. Y’alls testimonials of plenty don’t count as research and hard numbers. Sure, tru, spin exists. But please keep in mind, a) people will shop for gifts bc they think they have to (maybe they’re going into deeper debt, yo?), and b) some people really ARE struggling right now. And yes, consistent, relatively rapid slowing growth year-over-year is serious stuff! Especially when you consider that there has been a huge EROSION of value (ASSETS~!) in the last 5 yrs (starting with Enron, etc.) Now, personally, I finna spin it positively, too. Lawd knows I need it. I’m pragmatic here.
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Anita Campbell of Small Business Trends | November 14th, 2008 at 2:45 pm
OK, OK, Grant … for those who insist on being glass half empty!
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